Monday, September 22, 2008

More False Analysis at Babalu Blog

This shouldn't surprise anyone. I was looking through the posts over at Babalu Blog and noticed that Henry Gomez is again playing around with polling numbers.

According to a post from last week, Gomez cited the results of a CBS4 poll, conducted by Survey USA, showing Sen. McCain with a sound 6-point lead against Sen. Obama in Florida. There's no doubt that McCain is leading in Florida. On September 11, Quinnipiac polling showed McCain with a 7-point lead. And just yesterday, Rasmussen polling was showing McCain still ahead with 5 points.

But, Mr. Gomez's point here was that the recent Survey USA poll "blows away the mainstream media's new myth" that "the Republican 'stranglehold' over the Hispanic vote in Florida is loosening."

I don't know one honest person who would be convinced by ONE POLL to make such declarations. But, Henry Gomez of the Babalu Blog seems to be that one.

I've already written before about Mr. Gomez's faulty analysis on polling data, and his convenient omissions in his declarations (and debated him on Babalu before being banned). Either Mr. Gomez is being secretly manipulative, or ignorant of the variety of polling data that emerges almost on a daily basis.

Let's review some results.

Mr. Gomez seemed to be ecstatic with the results of the Survey USA poll (because they "blew away" the myths of the evil mainstream media), but he didn't look at the sample demographics. The poll showed that Hispanics in Florida picked Sen. McCain over Obama at 55 - 36% (with 9% undecided). But, the Survey USA poll vastly under-represents Hispanics in Florida.

According to US Census data and estimates, Hispanics in Florida currently make up about 20-22% of the population. The Survey USA poll has Hispanics at 13%. This is closer to estimates from 1990(!). Also, Survey USA over-represents the 65 and older Florida population. They have it at 27%, when actual estimates are around 18%.

But, these relevant facts don't bother Mr. Gomez. He's busy celebrating how the mainstream media got "blown away."

Now, if Mr. Gomez was at all concerned about how the Hispanic population is going to vote, then he should take a look at the recent polling results (September 18, 2008) from the Pew Hispanic Center [PDF]. According to those results, more Hispanics believe Democrats have more concern for them (49%) in comparison to Republicans (only 7% believe), and think that Sen. Obama is a better candidate for them (55%) in comparison to Republicans (11%).

But, only time will tell. Other recent polling in Florida has also shown contradictions and complexities.

But that doesn't matter at Babalu.