Florida Votes

If you haven't heard, there are long lines for early voters in South Florida. There seems to be several reasons for this, some political. Anyway, a large voter turnout is a good sign, but one that may cause concern for our favorite congressional incumbents: Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart.

Below I have organized the results of recent polling by local Spanish-language news stations Telemundo51 and Univision23. The Telemundo51 poll used a sample of 300 registered voters in the following questions (margin of error: 5%). The Univision23 poll was conducted by The Metropolitan Center at Florida International University and used a sample of about 400 likely voters (margin of error not provided). All polling was conducted before or near the beginning of October.

What is very interesting of all the data is the number of undecided likely voters. Also, age and ethnicity seem to be a significant factor as well (click on links for more data). One thing I've learned about living in Miami, there's always a potential for a surprise. Below, results show all congressional incumbents leading the race so far.


REP. ILEANA ROS-LEHTINEN vs ANNETTE TADDEO

Telemundo51: 48% - 35%, Undecided 17%
Univision23/FIU: 52% - 27%, Undecided 21%


REP. LINCOLN DIAZ-BALART vs RAUL MARTINEZ

Telemundo51: 48% - 43%, Undecided 9%
Univision/FIU: 47% - 33%, Undecided 20%


REP. MARIO DIAZ-BALART vs JOE GARCIA

Telemundo51: 43% - 41%, Undecided 16%
Univision/FIU: 46% - 37%, Undecided 17%

It's Up to the Undecided [UPDATED]

This week Telemundo 51, one of South Florida's Spanish-language news stations, released interesting polling results about the anticipated Congressional races involving Rep. Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart, and Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. According to the results, the road to November will be very suspenseful.

DISTRICT 18

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen at first glace seems to have a very comfortable lead (48% v 35%) in front of her opponent, Annette Taddeo. But, Telemundo 51 and a recent FIU/Univision poll show a significant amount of potential voters still undecided. In both polls, undecided voters number about 20%!

DISTRICT 21

Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart leads (48% v 43%) in front of his opponent Raul Martinez, but undecided voters make up 9% of respondents.

DISTRICT 25

Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart and his opponent Joe Garcia are almost head to head in this race, Diaz-Balart leading 43% v 41%. But, undecided voters (16%) will certainly name the winner.

It's all very exciting, with less than a month to go until elections. It's important to note that these results come at a time when all candidates above are just beginning their massive media campaigns. These following weeks will be decisive.

Today, all six contenders appeared in a local forum, which the Naked Politics blog attended and provides some details.

The Babalu Blog, who loves to analyze polls, has not reported these findings yet. And Diario Las Americas, a local Spanish-language newspaper that regularly includes columns by Reps. Lincoln or Mario Diaz-Balart, has not reported these findings either. Instead, Diario today posts an article showing support for Ileana, Mario and Lincoln by a Cuban exile organization.

According to the article in Diario, the militant Cuban exile organization "Foro Patriótico Cubano" has endorsed Ileana, Mario and Lincoln for November. The endorsement is signed at the bottom by its members, which include Radio Mambi's Armando Perez Roura and Frank Alonso. Both Perez Roura and Alonso are leaders of the militant organization Unidad Cubana.

----- [Update: Oct. 17] -----

More polling results have been publicized by Univision/FIU. According to the new results, the race between Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart and Joe Garcia is not as close as it seems. Rep. Diaz-Balart leads over Garcia 46% v 37%. This is a larger lead than the one found by polling done for Telemundo51. Nevertheless, the number of undecided voters is almost identical (17%).

Meanwhile, the attack ads in the race between Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Raul Martinez are heating up. Telemundo51 has video of a confrontation between both candidates accusing each other of being the instigator.

In the video, Raul Martinez reveals that he approached Rep. Diaz-Balart and proposed a deal where they could agree to remove certain negative ads. Martinez says that Rep. Diaz-Balart refused to discuss the issue. Thus, Martinez says that he will continue his ads attacking his opponent as "corrupt."

Also in the video, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart repeats that there is nothing personal about his ads. But, his ads against Martinez have been scrutinized as deceptive.

Raul Martinez has also recently been endorsed by the Miami Herald.

Jose Ramos-Horta on the US Embargo

Jose Ramos-Horta is winner of the 1996 Nobel Peace Prize and current President of Timor-Leste. He spoke to the UN General Assembly last week (September 25, 2008) and addressed the US embargo towards Cuba. In his own words...

-----[Excerpt from full speech(PDF)]-----

Timor-Leste is a LDC [Least Developed Country]. However, the Almighty God has bestowed on us some modest oil, gas and other mineral wealth.

While our first obligation is to make use of our oil wealth towards a sustainable development of our country and addressing the immediate needs of our poorest, we are not indifferent to the suffering of our fellow human beings in other parts of the world.

[...]

Now in response to several natural disasters that have affected tens of millions of our fellow human beings, Timor-Leste has promptly decided to donate:

1. US$500,000 for the victims of the earthquake that hit the Chinese province of Sichuan;

2. US$500,000 for the victims of cyclone Nargis that hit Myanmar in May 2 to be channeled through the ASEAN Secretariat;

3. US$500,000 for Cuba to assist the victims of cyclones Gustav and Ike, to be channeled directly to the Cuban authorities.

[...]

Cyclones Gustav and Ike, that brought thorough devastation to the Caribbean, ruined the Cuban economy. The material losses are staggering with initial estimates totaling at least US$5 [billion].

We have almost 700 East Timorese medical students in Cuba and over 140 are studying medicine in our National University with Cuban medical instructors. In addition, there are almost 300 Cuban doctors working in our country distributed through all districts and sub-districts. Cuban adult education specialists assist us in adult literacy campaign benefiting thousands of adults. The costs of these programs are covered almost entirely by Cuba.

While I commend the US and any country that stands for universal democratic values and provide moral support for those promoting democracy in their own country, I submit that punitive measures imposed on poor developing countries for the perceived sins of their leaders cannot be morally justified.

As a friend to the US, I humbly appeal to the next US Administration and Congress to lift the embargo on Cuba. Such a gesture would be an honourable one and my admiration for the US would only increase. As it is, as I witness the impact of US sanctions on a small developing country and its refusal to provide assistance to Cuba following the devastation caused by cyclones Gustav and Ike, my heart bleeds in sorrow and my admiration for the US seriously diminishes.

In this regard, I wish to reiterate our most heartfelt sympathy and solidarity with the people of Haiti and others in the Caribbean region that were affected by the recent natural disasters.

The Embargo

In 2005, a book by political science professors Patrick J. Haney and Walt Vanderbush was published concerning the US embargo towards Cuba. It was called "The Cuba Embargo: The Domestic Politics of an American Foreign Policy."

In my opinion, the book provides an excellent summary and analysis of the dynamic politics behind the US embargo (an interest of Haney and Vanderbush going as far back as 1999). But, I bring attention to the book now because of the authors' prescient conclusions made three years ago.

Haney and Vanderbush believed that a Democratic Presidential win in 2004 would signal the "last hurrah" for the US embargo against Cuba. While their hopes in 2004 never materialized, this year's election gives new life to their conclusions and may prove them right in the end.

I highly recommend Haney and Vanderbush's book, and you can read large excerpts at Google Books.

----- [Excerpt from pp.169-170] -----

It is at least possible that a Democratic candidate could do better in Florida by arguing for small changes to the embargo, as younger Cuban Americans are less wedded to the hard embargo, and as the state's non-Cuban Hispanic vote increases rapidly. At the very least, that would seem a more promising approach than giving the appearance of pandering to the Cuban Americans. A Democratic presidential candidate might take a more nuanced postion on the embargo - in favor of more travel, continued family remittances, and no limits on the sale of food and medicine to Cuba, perhaps, while maintaining diplomatic isolation and other elements of the economic embargo, particularly prohibiting the import of Cuban goods to the United States - and find that there is a net gain in Florida, much less the rest of the country.

Finally, some have suggested that this may be the last presidential election during the era of the Cuban embargo... As we have discussed, the politics of Cuba policy, to the extent that they have a trend line, seem to us to be moving away from the embargo for a variety of economic, political, institutional, and electoral reasons. This election may be the last hurrah for embargo hard-liners as they hold out the prize of Florida's electoral votes, or the embargo may go out with a whimper at some future point. But, however it ultimately recedes, the days of the strong U.S. embargo of Cuba are numbered in large part because the political dynamics set in motion in the 1980's have come of age in ways that have undermined presidential control over the embargo, and the embargo policy itself.

After the Hurricane (Part 2)

It's been almost one month since Cuba was hit by a Category-4 hurricane named Gustav. The devastation brought upon the island nation was estimated at $5 billion by the Cuban government. Cuban President Raul Castro noted that "never in the history of Cuba" had such destruction been caused by a passing hurricane. The US-funded Cuba Transition Project described the aftermath as "perhaps the worst natural disaster in the past half-century."

But, as Americans view the devastation in the nearby region, no official US aid has arrived inside Cuba. The Cuban government has repeatedly rejected US aid. The US refuses to negotiate any terms with the Cuban government which could bring millions of dollars of relief.

Yet, this stalemate should come to no surprise to those who are familiar with US-Cuba relations for the past half-century. And recalling their long-standing conflict since 1959 is a tragic lesson whose events should cause a rare sadness among the most hopeful.

After the hurricane, some behave like nothing happened.

Earlier this week, Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez made it clear to reporters that despite Cuba's efforts to recover from Gustav, economic pressure to achieve regime change is still a priority (just like the last 50 years):

"We don’t want to give them a lot of breathing room at a time where we believe change will happen."

The Economist magazine last week reported on the dire Cuban situation, and they specified what kind of "change" Sec. Gutierrez may have in mind:

"Hurricanes Gustav and Ike could increase pressure on Raúl Castro to accelerate reforms to loosen the island’s centrally-controlled economy, much as his brother, Fidel, was forced to do in the early 1990s after the collapse of Cuba’s subsidized trade with the Soviet Union."

The Cuban government as well positioned itself to condemn the US embargo (as it has for the past 50 years). But, this time at the risk of denying much needed relief aid to the victims of hurricane Gustav. Blogger Yoani Sanchez of Generation Y asked herself some important questions that many Cubans may be asking themselves at the moment:

"What is the priority of the Cuban government? Political principals or the welfare of those who have lost everything?"

But, as the UN General Assembly gathers in New York, it looks like the Cuban government may have intentionally rejected US aid in an effort to again highlight US economic sanctions against Cuba, sanctions which have been repeatedly condemned by the majority of nations at the UN.

Given the public remarks of some of the nations so far, the UN General Assembly may again condemn the US embargo, perhaps with greater force than before. Hopefully, the US will listen and consider lifting the US economic sanctions.

Nevertheless, the US government has not done enough beyond just making presentations of relief aid to Cuba. It is still time to begin a dialogue with Cuba, and also to negotiate.

When Cyclone Nargis hit Burma in May of this year (causing the death of tens of thousands), the US government made real efforts to convince the Burmese military junta to allow delivery of American relief aid. The US sent the head of US Pacific Command to the Burmese capital of Rangoon, where "the highest-level military contact between the two countries in decades" took place.

The US Treasury Department even relaxed its sanctions by issuing one general license to NGO's delivering aid to Burma. NGO's delivering aid to Cuba are still required to obtain TWO licenses.

The US must make more efforts to dismantle their diplomatic barriers to Cuba. They should follow the recent bi-partisan recommendations of the Council on Foreign Relations, seize the opportunity to normalize relations with Cuba, and join multilateral objectives in achieving a free Cuba.

Or, are we just going to wait for the next big one to hit?

More False Analysis at Babalu Blog

This shouldn't surprise anyone. I was looking through the posts over at Babalu Blog and noticed that Henry Gomez is again playing around with polling numbers.

According to a post from last week, Gomez cited the results of a CBS4 poll, conducted by Survey USA, showing Sen. McCain with a sound 6-point lead against Sen. Obama in Florida. There's no doubt that McCain is leading in Florida. On September 11, Quinnipiac polling showed McCain with a 7-point lead. And just yesterday, Rasmussen polling was showing McCain still ahead with 5 points.

But, Mr. Gomez's point here was that the recent Survey USA poll "blows away the mainstream media's new myth" that "the Republican 'stranglehold' over the Hispanic vote in Florida is loosening."

I don't know one honest person who would be convinced by ONE POLL to make such declarations. But, Henry Gomez of the Babalu Blog seems to be that one.

I've already written before about Mr. Gomez's faulty analysis on polling data, and his convenient omissions in his declarations (and debated him on Babalu before being banned). Either Mr. Gomez is being secretly manipulative, or ignorant of the variety of polling data that emerges almost on a daily basis.

Let's review some results.

Mr. Gomez seemed to be ecstatic with the results of the Survey USA poll (because they "blew away" the myths of the evil mainstream media), but he didn't look at the sample demographics. The poll showed that Hispanics in Florida picked Sen. McCain over Obama at 55 - 36% (with 9% undecided). But, the Survey USA poll vastly under-represents Hispanics in Florida.

According to US Census data and estimates, Hispanics in Florida currently make up about 20-22% of the population. The Survey USA poll has Hispanics at 13%. This is closer to estimates from 1990(!). Also, Survey USA over-represents the 65 and older Florida population. They have it at 27%, when actual estimates are around 18%.

But, these relevant facts don't bother Mr. Gomez. He's busy celebrating how the mainstream media got "blown away."

Now, if Mr. Gomez was at all concerned about how the Hispanic population is going to vote, then he should take a look at the recent polling results (September 18, 2008) from the Pew Hispanic Center [PDF]. According to those results, more Hispanics believe Democrats have more concern for them (49%) in comparison to Republicans (only 7% believe), and think that Sen. Obama is a better candidate for them (55%) in comparison to Republicans (11%).

But, only time will tell. Other recent polling in Florida has also shown contradictions and complexities.

But that doesn't matter at Babalu.

Why Won't Mario, Lincoln and Ileana Debate?

This weekend, Vice President and General Manager of local news station WPLG, David Boylan, asked a question in a televised editorial aimed at the three Cuban-American Congressional incumbents of South Florida:

"[W]hy are the incumbent candidates so reluctant to join in the debate?"

It seems that Republican Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart have been avoiding making some committments for televised debates against their Democrat challengers in South Florida. The same day that Boylan's editorial aired on WPLG, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart had finally confirmed the FIRST debate of the three important Congressional races. His challenger is Joe Garcia, former executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation.

Larry Thorson, a Democrat blogging about the three local races, had noticed the pattern of avoidance by the three Republicans, and believes they're fooling around with the public:

"Why do they do this? My guess is that they may fool some few voters who will approvingly remember the little news story saying the Republicans had agreed to debate, but not see the one reporting the debate had been called off."

According to Boylan, "[WPLG] is planning to televise three debates next month for the candidates who want to be your voice in Congress. All three challengers say they're in, but all three incumbents have more commitment issues than an aging bachelor. Representatives Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen won't confirm their availability."

It seems that this editorial was the result of rumors that Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart had backed away from scheduled debates to be aired on WPLG, and to be moderated by their political reporter Michael Putney. The dates were scheduled for October 8 and 31. Lincoln's challenger is Raul Martinez, former Mayor of Hialeah.

But, according to the Miami Herald's political blog, Naked Politics, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart has NOW agreed to a televised debate with Martinez on rival news station CBS4. This all came about this weekend, after the WPLG editorial, and after "[t]he camps traded insulting press releases Friday." Lesley Clark on Naked Politics quotes a political analyst saying that this particular race (for Congressional District 21) has the potential to be "one of the ugliest" this season.

Given the renewed debate over travel and remittance restrictions on Cuban families, Raul Martinez, Joe Garcia and Annette Taddeo (challenging Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen) can certainly capitalize on this issue given that most in Miami likely favor changes in this policy. But, it may all come down to the economy.

[Raul Martinez Website]
[Joe Garcia Website]
[Annette Taddeo Website]

[Photo by Roberto Schmidt/AFP]